Karl Rove in an NPR interview with Robert Siegel Tuesday insisted that his polling shows that the GOP will retain control of both houses. Despite the general polling that would indicate a landslide victory for Democrats, the election for the House of Representatives is a winner-take-all, district by district affair, and the GOP has worked hard to insure its continued success by gerrymandering districts to diminish the impact of broad popular sentiment. The GOP has also brought electoral abuses, cheating, and dirty tricks to new levels of low that most Americans have a hard time believing such God-fearing folk could be capable of. I know, Dems do it to, but they are rank amateurs compared to the GOP political ops.
Apparently the GOP has a lot more money committed to micro polling than the Dems do, and Rove might know things the Dems and the rest of us don't. There are some people who question whether Rove is the political genius he's made out to be, but if he finds a way to pull off a GOP victory Nov. 7, I don't think there will be any question that it will be one of the biggest, and most undeserved, upsets in American political history.
And as in 2000, don't be surprised if you add up all the votes cast for Democrats and all the votes cast for Republicans, the Dems have a significant majority. The Dems can get 90% of the vote in 49% of the districts, but the GOP will win if it gets 50.1% of the vote in 51% of the districts. That's "the new math" Karl is working with, and he was right in 2000 and 2004 when the old math that assumes that popular majorities win elections.
Anyway, if Rove wins on Nov. 7, don't be surprised if on Nov. 8 the war with Iran begins. It may happen even if he loses.