Cool Debate

A couple of quick thoughts: No clear winner, but I think Obama helped himself a little more.  And if his poll trajectory is, in fact, up and hers is down, that's good enough for him.  He didn't have to score big. Clinton came across very well.  I don't think she hurt herself, but I'm not sure that she did anything to stop Obama's momentum. We'll see come Tuesday.

I hope this debate satisfies all those who have been complaining that there hasn't been enough policy substance in the debates. I found it riveting, but I doubt it changed many people's minds. If anything it may have favored Obama because he, though he doesn't present himself primarily as a wonk, showed he could more than hold his own in a wonk-off with the Queen of Wonks.

So in the end, it comes down to where people stand on Iraq (Obama's best line:"I want to end the mindset that got us into the war in the first place."), and where people stand on transformational leadership vs. nuts and bolts program pushing.  Health care, in my opinion, was a wash between them. It seems to me every body is either automatically covered as in a singlepayer system, or if you have to buy in, you cannot be forced. That's not my idea of "universal," and it comes across as nanny-statish. If single payer with automatic coverage isn't a political possibility, then the most important thing is to control costs and keep premiums affordable and available to anybody who wants insurance regardless of preexisting conditions. Both plans seek to do that, and that's all that matters.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see how forcing people to buy is going to wash politically in a society still so smitten by Libertarian thinking. 

On immigration, do Democrats care about driver's licenses vs. no driver's licenses?  I don't. Sounds like something Republicans obsess about. It was interesting that Obama was reaching out to the Latinos while Clinton seemed to be throwing the Latinos under the bus in reaching out to blacks.  I think that helps Obama more than it helps Clinton, because the black vote has left the dock and is sailing for Obamaland, and it isn't coming back. I think the Latino vote is more volatile, and Hillary hurt herself with the Latinos. I doubt, though, that Ugly Betty will be rescinding her endorsement.

I think Hillary got of a good line about it taking a Clinton to clean up the messes made by Bush, except that it has little relation to reality.  Bill did little to pursue Bush 1 culpability in Iran Contra and a host of other shady dealings, especially in the Middle East.  And I don't know that Obama will aggressively pursue investigations into Bush 2 era crimes, but we can be relatively certain that Hillary won't, what with Bill and Bush 1 being such buds and all.

I think that Obama helped himself with his humor, and both laugh lines were at Republican expense. I think he came across as serious, gracious, confident, and at ease. I'm sure Clinton supporters feel the same way about their candidate.  But at this point it's  all about momentum going into next Tuesday, who's got it, and who don't.  You've got to give the edge to Obama there. And another thing is clear--Obama is growing as a candidate, because this was his best debate. Clinton was her normal, sure-footed self, but Obama seems like the candidate on the move.

Both these candidates look as though they are in a completely different league than the GOP candidates, but that doesn't mean that's the way America will look at them  in November. We know that the Republicans will do everything they can to frighten the politically immature from taking the chance with either of these candidates. They look good now, but enough doubt will be cast on them by one or another kind of swiftboating, and that will churn up the underlying discomfort lying dormant in so many Americans about voting for a woman or a black man.  Better to to take the safer course, they will think to themselves, and vote for a Republican again.

That's my fear. I hope it's unfounded or at least that it's not something that will affect a majority of Americans. The last seven years, though, have taught me not ever to underestimate the fear factor. I'd like to believe that Americans have learned their lesson, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Nevertheless, I'm feeling optimistic at the moment, and for now at least I choose not to think about the specter of Republican thuggery looming on the horizon.

Comments

[anon]

Don't you think that Hillary has been in the public eye for so long that her dirty laundry has already been washed, rinsed, spun, and air dried 'and folded neatly into the drawers. With Obama, I'm thinking that not many of the casual voters know him very well. I also think that he hasn't been scrutinized by the media all that much. The Republicans will undoubtedly bring up cocaine use and will play the fear card against him in particular. It wouldn't be surprising if we learn of something negative in Obama's past that just hasn't been brought to the fore.

If the surge continues to go well and given Obama's 'community organizer' background, McCain will exploit foreign policy and try to make Obama look weak, naive, and impotent.

[Matthew]

How about the obama/clinton "dream ticket"? Eh? Eh?

[Jack Whelan]

Anon--

No question in my mind that the GOP will get nasty in the ugliest kind of racist way. Won't be McCain of course, but some group he has no control over. So yes, I do think Obama is vulnerable there.

The question I don't know the answer to is how many Americans will be affected by those techniques and to what degree the Democrats have wised up about how to defend themselves against those kinds of attacks.

Obama isn't stupid. You know his camp has got to be preparing for the swiftboating this time around, and he's done well so far in parrying the, admittedly, mild attacks directed toward him by the Clintons. But, sure, Obama's vulnerabilities worry me.

The dittoheads are a lost cause no matter what, but what I want to believe is that most Americans--enough, at least to matter in an election--see these techniques for what they are. I think there is a general disgust with Republicans that the Democrats can work with to repel this kind of attack. We'll see, but that's my hope.

I also think that Obama will get more sympathetic treatment in the media than Clinton will. Because you know all the anti-Clinton rage is going to come out again. New angles on Vince Foster, Whitewater, Monica, lesbian feminazism, etc. It doesn't matter that we've been there done that. What matters is how it plays in the media, and the media is obsessively politically correct when it comes to race, and obsessively vicious and unfair when it comes to the Clintons.

I think McCain wins the media perception battle with Hillary, but he'll lose it with Obama. I could be wrong about that, but that's the way it looks to me now. Romney loses against both.

If Obama can't win the foreign policy debate with McCain, then I'm completely misreading the war-weary public mood. Americans are not particularly sophisticated, but they're not dumb enough to buy McCain's pro-war stupidity at this point in the game. The war-without-end stuff he's been saying has been ridiculous and should be easy to make fun of and exploit. The age vs. youth thing--I think it could be argued that it works in Obama's favor. Obama looks and acts presidential. He's not an empty suit like John Kerry. I think he wins the foreign policy contest easily.

The picture will become clearer as we go forward. There are layers of factors, and you can't discount the surprise factor. But for now, I feel comfortable in saying that both Obama and Clinton are equally vulnerable and both are tough enough to deal with the mudslide when it comes.

[Guy Fawkes]

Surprised you didn't mention how Obama basically wiped the floor with Clinton on Iraq. And it's really saying something when the only one to get booed was Wolf Blitzer--not that he kinda didn't deserve it--when he asked Hillary if she was "naive" to believe Bush. Even I cringed. And then said "don't smile too much, Barack!" as he reacted.

If Obama's got the "mo" it's going to keep coming after last night. I still doubt it will be enough, but I think the winner as other pundits put it: THE DEMOCRATS. I even felt better about Hillary last night than I ever thought I could, and that's saying something.