The McCain Speech

Some quick thoughts:  It struck me as schizophrenic, as if he's trying to do two opposite things at the same time--please the base and appear non-partisan to attract independents in the middle.  All the policy stuff was the same-old, same-old Republican litany, but then he says he wants to use Democratic ideas?  Is that believable from somebody who voted with Bush 90+% of the time? I don't believe it--or I believe it as much as I believe George Bush was capable of becoming the compassionate conservative he told us he would be. McCain may want to separate himself from Bush, his party's failures, and its vicious partisanship, but will the party let him?

"And then the bit about how he hates war from a guy who jokes Bomb, bomb, bomb--Bomb-bomb Iran." His sabre-rattling about Russia and Georgia, his aggressive support for the unnecessary invasion of Iraq, his refusal to listen to sense about a timely withdrawal does not represent the thinking of a man who truly, deeply hates war and cares about the soldiers. How can anybody take this seriously?

The delivery, except for the last two minutes or so, was stilted and quite frankly awful.  How can somebody in public service for so long be so bad at reading a teleprompter?  Is he so uncoachable?  He certainly leaves the impression that he isn't very bright, but these days I guess that's a good thing. The fact is that the convention was Palin's, and regardless who John McCain thinks he is, the party belongs to right-wingers like her. Whether she's in over her head or not doesn't matter.  I read somewhere today that the campaign is not letting her do any interviews.  She's going to be a completely packaged commodity. (Update: See here.)

I know conventions are occasions for contrived or manufactured enthusiasm, but there seemed a kind of bizarre disconnect, especially at the beginning, between the blandness of his statements and the enthusiastic response of the crowd--and then other times when he was pausing for applause and didn't get it.  Ninety percent of the speech struck me as a disjointed mess.

I was a little surprised about the POW story, not because I thought he wouldn't push that theme, but because of the way he spoke about it. Talking about being broken, being dependent, being weak and being reborn to serve others.  Those are not your typical GOP talking points.  But the fact remains that he came home, dumped his sick wife, and married a woman almost twenty years younger with a lot of money.  So there's a disconnect there between the story's point that his experience as a POW made him stop being a selfish jerk.  He came home and acted like a selfish jerk.  And in his 1999 book he admitted that he was running for president simply for his own ambition.  All this stuff about serving and fighting for others is cant.  If John McCain is man for others, I need more evidence than his simply asserting he is.

I don't know.  I'll be interested to learn what others think, but the two goals that this speech seemed to set out for itself canceled one another out.  Or maybe people just listen to the part that they agree with and filter out the part they don't.  Not sure.  I think the main thing McCain accomplished in the past week was to energize the base by the Palin pick, but if tonight was his attempt to reach out to the middle, I don't think it worked, and it probably angered the base.  (But will they work energetically for him anyway because it will mean Palin in 2012?) We'll see what kind of bump he'll get, but it wouldn't surprise me if Obama holds onto at least a 6 or 7% lead.  That might be wishful thinking, but time will tell.

Comments

[Jason]

You're a better man than me. I turned on the speech and heard him going on a riff that was demonstrably untrue (something about how Obama was going to raise taxes and McCain was going to give everybody health care through the magic of trickle-down economics), and turned it right off.

[Guy Fawkes]

I certainly don't want McCain to win, but I actually feel kind of sorry for the guy.

Bush and Rove took away his nomination 8 years ago through a combination of charm and stinking sleaze. In the process, they have made it difficult or impossible for him to win this year, and destroyed the Republican party too. (Hooray, some of you are saying. And me too, to some degree. But when are we going to get principled, real conservatism back?)

It's going to be an interesting time, especially with an Obama victory.

[Jack Whelan]

GF:

McCain is, like most of us, a man with many parts. And as with many of us, the different parts don't talk much to one another. There's little awareness of the contradictions, and no possibility of resolving them. Last night's speech is a typical result.

So the way I look at anyone is to try to understand which part dominates, which voice of the many that any person speaks is loudest, and that when push comes to shove makes the decisions.

And it seems pretty clear to me that his ambition is the voice that's dominant. Is that the whole McCain story? No, but it's the dominant one. Is he sincere in his message last night about non-partisanship? Probably. But it doesn't matter because his ambition will prevent him from doing anything significant about it, just as it prevented him from making Lieberman vice-president. A party committed to vicious partisanship won't let him do anything about it.

Is ambition part of the story for Obama? Of course, but I don't see it dominating the Obama narrative the way it dominates the McCain narrative. And you also see that in Obama the different parts are talking to one another; there's more emotional and intellectual integration and maturity.

Is it possible that McCain, if elected, would take only one term and let his now suppressed loose-cannon voice take over and use his time to go against his party.? Maybe. The base party might put up with it for four years knowing that Palin is in the wings to run in '12.

It might turn out that Palin is a flash in the pan. Time will tell, but if she survives the media vetting she'll be getting in the next several weeks and McCain wins, is there a more compelling GOP candidate for '12? Not unless someone else appears out of nowhere like she did.

Palin vs. Clinton: who do you think would win that one in '12?

[Valerius]

"It might turn out that Palin is a flash in the pan. Time will tell, but if she survives the media vetting she'll be getting in the next several weeks and McCain wins, is there a more compelling GOP candidate for '12? Not unless someone else appears out of nowhere like she did."

Look at Bobby Jindal, the current governor of Louisiana. He has supposedly been anointed the next Ronald Reagan by Rush Limbaugh and has an even more impressive academic background then Obama. From what I've seen of him in speeches and media interviews, the guy is really sharp and a tremendous public speaker--after Bush and McCain, the Republicans will be desperate for that.

[Jack Whelan]

Valerius--

Any reason they didn't pick him for VP this time? Do they really think that Palin will pick up the disaffected Hillary crowd?

Afterthought: Or is it because he takes away the racist/uppity (i.e.elitist)/inexperience line of attack?

[Valerius]

If I were to guess, the Republicans (or perhaps Jindal himself) are trying to save him for the future--the guy is only 37 years old! Moreover, if he succeeds in turning New Orleans around, that would create quite a strong narrative for himself.

[Matt Zemek]

I think any talk of 2012 can wait.

The Palin pick was successful because it mobilized the base, which I didn't think was a sure thing earlier in this campaign for McCain. Now he's trying to get independents and swing voters.

And about the speech being schizophrenic: The Republicans always are.

But as we know all too well, facts don't matter, and voter decisions aren't rational.

I'm stunned that the Republican Convention got the same viewers as the DNC, given Gustav, Labor Day, and NFL football being on Thursday night.

I'm worried because the debates are shaping up to be yet another case of the Republican ticket enjoying very, very low expectations, which can be translated to mean something like, "As long as McCain has a pulse and Palin avoids a monster gaffe, the Republicans will gain big-time momentum."

We've seen this movie before. Dan Quayle did not prevent Bush 41 from losing in 1988. Why? Willie Horton.

This year, it's Sarah Palin--"hot mom," with a pregnant daughter, someone people can relate to, and lots of other things that have nothing to do with issues (where she's a clear policy lightweight).