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Saturday, January 31, 2009

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Bonnie Prince Charlie

I offer a correction in your first line -- wouldn't you say that Kilgore's view is the state of things for the pro-abortion-*rights* point of view? This is kind of a pet peeve of mine: Although you probably did not mean it this way, calling someone "pro-abortion" ramps up the blood pressure on both sides of the issue and isn't really accurate except when describing a (thankfully, IMHO) tiny minority of people.

Concerning your post's main point, while I fervently wish that the national Democratic Party would adopt your reasoning, I just can't imagine how such an enormous change in policy could ever come about. I like to imagine (although it's very possibly not true at all) that Obama's personal ideas are close to yours but that there's little he can do about it as leader of a party that's been aligned with abortion-rights activity for so long. That really would be change that we could believe in(!), but I'd like for you to describe how to get from here to there without completely destroying the party and leaving no real opposition to what the Republicans have been about for the past few decades.

Jack Whelan

BPC--

Correction noted.

Regarding your question about how to get from here to there:

The mistake I think Dem strategists make is to think too rationally. They are, at least compared to GOP strategists, tone deaf to the "mythos" dimension in politics and how it affects voter self-identification. They think that the ace up their sleeves is that the polling data show that most Americans align with Dem policy positions. And yet for the last thirty years, Americans have leaned GOP.

Too many Dems seem not to understand that whatever polling data shows about most Americans' positions on the issues, most Americans are as disgusted with Dems as a party as they are with the GOP. They won this round because the economy scared Main Street enough to push them in the Dem direction and because Obama is an extraordinary candidate. But the Dem hold on Main Street will continue to be tenuous so long as the GOP can play the mythos card to its advantage--and abortion is the ace up its sleeve in that regard. Current abortion law is not just a problem for the hard cultural right; it's a problem for lots of people, and it should be.

I think that getting from here to there starts with the Dems grasping how their "mythos" works against them. I don't think that Dems can repudiate their history of support for abortion rights, but they can distance themselves from it by talking about the irrelevancy of the the 70s politics to what we are confronting today--by reframing politics for a new generation that isn't caught up with all the Boomer nonsense.

I'd be satisfied if prominent Dems like Obama could find a way to play a more neutral role regarding abortion, the way, for instance, I hope Obama will play it regarding the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

Unless Roe is overturned, the shift of the culture war to the state houses is an impossibility, so at this point a move toward neutrality is the only real option for Dems who take my concerns seriously. I wonder what the impact would be, though, if Obama's first SCOTUS appointment would be a Bob Casey type, a solid Democrat and civil libertarian who is personally opposed to abortion.

Roe is bad law on so many levels. If we could bracket what it has become as symbol, it would not be hard to make a solid intellectual argument about overturning it, especially if the bottom line is for the court to say it's for the states to decide. The cultural left would freak out, but would Main Street? Which is the more desired future base of the Dem party? I think that's a no-brainer.

The problem I think you point to about tearing the party apart has mostly to do with most Dem strategists like Kilgore being Beltway cultural liberals who may understand the Main Street mentality intellectually, but don't viscerally. If they are women, how many feel ambivalently about abortion the way most Americans do? If they are men, how of them do or if they do, how many of their wives and girlfriends do. There is a very powerful groupthink that goes on in these precincts, and the best people recognize it, but they are powerless to change it. It's better, as Kilgore suggests, simply to keep your head down and be satisfied to protect the cultural status quo.

this view from there

Well-written piece. Relevantly, as many nationally influential voices have repeatedly noted, Obama is part of Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you'll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) are specifically referring to Obama, born in 1961, as part of Generation Jones.

Great op-ed on exactly this topic a few days ago in USA TODAY, that speaks specifically to the culture wars you reference:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm

Rudy

I don't have much to add to your thoughtful post. But I think that Roe. vs. Wade *does* allow for relevant local decision, inasmuch as abortion in the third trimester is a matter that the Roe decision allows to be decided locally. The problem is that the RTL movement wants it *all*.

Jack Whelan

Rudy--

I oppose Roe because of its top-down-ness about a matter that should be decided bottom up. It's a matter that should be open to adaptation in law as attitudes about it evolve, as I think they will in coming decades. Right now it is a festering wound that cannot heal so long as Roe blocks it from fresh air and sunlight.

Whatever wiggle room Roe might allow now, it's still not enough. My position is that if in Mississippi and Nebraska they want an absolute ban on abortion they should have it. If in Connecticut and Nevada they want unrestricted abortions, they should have it. If most people in a state believe the woman's right to choose takes precedent over the fetus's right to life, let them design a law that represents that. If most people in a state believe the fetus' rights take precedent, let them design their laws.

I think the debate would be uncomfortable and rancorous, but at least there would be a debate that would force people to think about what they really believe rather than the courts simply pre-empting any such discussion and democratic decision making about it. I can live with whatever people decide if they have the chance to decide it. This festering wound hurts the Democrats and helps the Republicans, and will continue to do so. It needs to be lanced and to get some fresh air.

I would hope, though, that a sane middle ground could be found in some states that might in time become models that would be adopted over time everywhere. Right now nothing can happen; we're stuck.

Jack Whelan

BTW, Ed Kilgore has another post on the subject here: http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2009/02/some_final_words_on_ending_the.php
He quotes my comment about the Dems taking a neutral stand.

I've tried to comment on his site, but it won't let me sign if for some reason. But quite apart from the question about whether cultural issues ought to be embraced by Dems on the national level, my more fundamental argument is that Dem alignment on this particular issue hurts them more than it hurts them.

Also regarding the Linda Harshman point about arguing the morality of abortions rights position, have at it, but it does come down to one's metaphysics, and as Kilgore rightly points out, if there's little room for compromise on those basic principles. That's why I think that it needs to be decided on a state-by-state basis.

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