The intriguing question is what happens to the great mobilization of people who organized for Obama. How does it shift from a campaign machine into a true social movement?
I think the big reason why Obama will become Bill Clinton rather than FDR is that it's not clear to me that there is any organized social movement to push him. I might be wrong here, but if there is one, I don't see it. Presidents and the legislators he needs to get things done are under enormous pressure from well-organized and well-funded factions to do what is in those factions' interests. They get what they want unless there are other equally well-organized factions to exert counterpressure.
Presidents can't just can't do what they want; they need organized support. And where is that going to come from: Move-On? The blogosphere? Something surprising that we don't see yet? Perhaps. Maybe I'm just stuck in rear-view mirror thinking. It could be that the kind of social movements that drove change in the past will not be its drivers in the future. But I'm not clear how it's going to work.
It could also be that the Republican Party will have become so dispirited that it will not put up much of a fight, i.e., that its legislators will cave for Obama the way the Dems caved for Bush, but I doubt it. The difference between the Republicans and the Dems in the last couple of cycles has been that the Republicans in addition to the well funded support of corporate interests, particularly in pharmaceuticals, defense, and energy, have had broad, well-organized support among the religious right and social conservatives. These GOP legislators knew that if they broke ranks, their future in politics was likely over. We know better than to assume that Dems will have the same discipline in supporting any transformational program initiated by Obama because they have no fear of being punished.
I know there are more moderates and liberals than there are people on the hard right, but are they even remotely as well organized and capable of punishing intransigent Dem legislators? I don't think so, but maybe that will change. The key question is where will most of the pressure on them be coming from? We can be sure that the corporate interests will do what they always do to coopt Dem legislators who are for sale. So where will the pressure come from to keep these legislators in line, assuming Obama even attempts to effect the transformational? The picture is pretty blurry right now, and so it will be interesting to see what things will look like as they come into clearer focus.
I'd be satisfied if he could just repair the damage done to the constitution and to our reputation abroad, and initiate some programs on energy and infrastructure. Healthcare is going to be a bear.
P.S. Maybe the Beltway establishment will be Obama's organized, well-funded pressure group.