(h/t TPM)
Twenty percent or one in five Americans identify as Republicans. One in three identify as Democrats, which isn't that great either. But the point is that both parties were at 30 percent in 2004, and even if you want to discount the three point uptick for Dems as inconsequential (it will probably stabilize around 30 percent again), the eight-point drop is consequential for Republicans. Is there a floor for them? Not if they keep drumming out their moderates.
So here's the takeaway. The movement conservative wing of the Republican Party got what it wanted since the seventies--complete control of the Party and its agenda. The movement has had its opportunity to govern. It failed miserably and four out of five Americans now recognize it. In 2004, even after Abu Ghraib more Americans voted for Bush than they did in 2000. This was for me as depressing as it was astonishing. 2008 was closer than it should have been because the Dems had a black candidate with a Muslim-sounding name.
But 2008 meant that around twenty percent of the electorate over and above the then thirty percent self-identified Republican core group still did not understand what the Bush administration was. The 2000 election was outright theft, but 2004 was the American electorate's shameful ratification of that theft. I know Kerry was bad news, but it was already clear to anyone who was not ideologically intoxicated and half paying attention by then that Bush/Cheney was a disaster and that four more years with this administration was going to make even a bigger mess of things, and that's exactly what happened.
Ok, so the chart above indicates that the American electorate has learned its lesson--only the hardest core of the movement conservatism still self-identify as Republicans. Nevertheless many in the media and the Beltway courtier class still afford credibility to the Republican Party that in no way correlates with its standing in the rest of the country.
Now one of the basic arguments I've been making here over the years is that American public opinion doesn't matter--ok, it matters, but it's secondary to elite opinion within the Beltway. The country has realigned, but the Beltway has not. And in the end the real question is whether a substantive shift can be effected among Beltway power elites, and it's not at all clear to me that it can.
I understand and respect principled, small-government conservatives, but I don't think they make any sense. Reducing the size of government just isn't going to happen, and it can't happen, and it's just silly to work for it. It's not realistic, and even if it was realistic, it would create other worse, if unintended by them, problems. But I understand their concerns, and would argue that their small-government solution is wrong because they misdiagnose the problem.
The problem is not big government; it's entrenched, unelected power, which essentially dictates to elected officials and their appointees what it wants done to effect its agenda. Unelected power doesn't need the GOP; it will do what it needs to do now to coopt the Ben Nelsons and other very corruptible Dems to get what it wants. Pretty soon we'll be seeing those Dem numbers dropping into the twenties, and Americans will forget once again how awful the GOP is and turn to it out of disgust with Dems for want of an alternative.
So the question remains whether something else besides this see-sawing between one group of puppets to the other is possible. Can the American electorate can be educated to understand that the challenge is not to reduce the size of government, but to demand that their government and it officials be held accountable. Like the torture issue, this isn't a matter of party affiliation; it's a matter of basic principle rooted in a commitment to the rule of law. This torture issue is a test case, because if we Americans can't get it done here where the egregiousness of these crimes is so obvious, we'll never be able to get it done on issues that are slipperier.