I'm not, but here's Drum's thinking:
Republicans have been given every chance and have obviously decided to obstruct rather then work on a bipartisan compromise. So the Blue Dogs and centrist Dems feel like they're covered on that angle. What's more, the townhalls have shown them what they're up against: if they don't pass a bill — if they cave in to the loons and demonstrate that their convictions were weak all along — they're probably doomed next year. Their only hope is to pass a bill and look like winners who get things done.
When you're up against a wall, you do what you have to do. Politically, Dems have to succeed, and at this point they've all had their noses rubbed in the fact that the only way to succeed is to stick together. What's more, Barack Obama has a pretty good knack for coming in after everyone else has talked themselves out and cutting through the haze to remind people of what's fundamentally at stake. If he can do that again, and if he has the entire Democratic caucus supporting him, they can win this battle.
Nearly every Democrat now has a stake in seeing healthcare reform pass. The devil, of course, is in the word "nearly," but at this point even Ben Nelson probably doesn't want to be the guy to sink a deal if he's literally the 60th vote to get something done. It's usually possible to pass a bill when everyone's incentives are aligned, and right now they're about as aligned as they can be. That's why, on most days, I remain optimistic.
UPDATE: A commenter at James Joyner's site describes Obama's style this way: “He operates like a community organizer: let people have their say, let them wear themselves out, then step in and define the consensus.” At his best, I think that gets it about right. (Source)
I agree that the Dems will lose if they appear as losers, and that should be motivation for them to pull together to get something done. Something major will get done, I'm sure. Bush got something major done, too--the Medicare Prescription Drug Program. If the final bill looks too much like the Bush bill in its essentials, the Dems will still look like losers. Because they will be losers. They'll spin it as best they can, but they won't fool anybody except those who want to be fooled.
We don't know for sure where Obama is going to come down on this until next Wednesday. The indications that Obama is turning out to be a triangulating Clintonite sellout--and seems quite happy to be--are pretty discouraging. I hope those indicators are more telling about some of Obama's staff than they are about him, but we'll see.
Let's just wait to see what happens next Wednesday. We can speculate on what it means for the future when it becomes clearer what will really be on the table.
P.S. This talk of triggers might be something I could get behind. It depends on how they are structured and if they have real teeth. The key for me is getting things going in the right direction. I don't think we need the whole package immediately.