I don't know what Obama is going to do in Afghanistan, but I am not particularly encouraged by this news about Eikenberry and Obama's demand for more options. I suspect it's all political kabuki, but what do I know? Maybe there are compelling, legitimate reasons for staying in Afghanistan that I don't know about or don't appreciate fully.
But let's say for argument's sake that it's close: there are half a dozen good reasons to stay, but seven good reasons to leave. I mean real reasons, like what's good for Afghanistan and the stability of the region, what's good for the American military and the American long-term public interest, not what's good for American jingoists and defense contractors. Does anybody think it's possible for the president to decide that the seven good reasons for getting out against six for staying are enough to justify withdrawal? Does anybody think that the president really has the power to do that?
I mean, of course, technically he does have the power, but it might also mean having his presidency destroyed by political blowback from the Owners. I would love for the Obama administration to prove to me that the dog can wag its tail, and the administration could do that by demonstrating just once that it can decide on the merits and not by caving to entrenched power, but to hope for such a thing seems silly and naive. And, quite frankly, I'd be a little scared about whether our system is strong enough to weather the blowback that almost surely would come if Obama just did it because it was the right thing without regard for the political consequences.
I'd love for my assumptions about how things work in this country to be proved wrong. I'd love to see in our democracy the dog, i.e., the interests of the American people, show it can wag its tail. But, come on. We all know that we're not leaving Afghanistan or Iraq even if the ratio of good reasons to leave to good reasons to stay was 5 to 1. We're not ever leaving just because it makes sense or it's the right thing to do; we'll only leave because we're forced to, as we were forced out of Vietnam in the seventies and the Russians forced out of Afghanistan in the eighties.
So I hope I'm wrong, but get back to me in a year, and see if anything has substantively changed.