Last night Democrats in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio decided that they wanted to take what they think of as the safe bet, and their votes for HRC were so many daggers that killed Bernie's revolution. A few thoughts going forward:
I see cultural identity issues as more central to our politics now than economic ones. This is the underlying point I make in the previous post, Dying Traditions in New York. Economics is about physical security; cultural identity is about spiritual security. Spiritual security is the felt sense of the dignity and freedom that humans feel that relies on their felt sense of the solidity of the place in the universe that they imagine themselves to inhabit. When the meaning framework that provides that solidity is attacked and it starts to crumble, so does the sense of self of the people who live within it.
Attack their meaning framework, and you attack their felt sense of dignity, freedom, and power. In the face of such attacks, some people find a way to adapt, but many don't. This IMO explains the Klan, the Nazis, the Tea Party, Islamic terrorism, and cultism in general. The people in these cults are people with little intrinsic sense of what's right or wrong. They depend instead on extrinsic social cues to know that. Mob violence is a socially legitimated way for powerless people to feel powerful, and their violence is usually directed toward scapegoats and those who made them feel powerless in the first place. The mob (or the cult, which is the same thing) provides the replacement for the richer, more nuanced meaning framework that was destroyed.
Ted Cruz is a dangerous man and not to be underestimated, but I believe he is just enough of a sociopath to make him unelectable. He's just too creepy to win over most Americans. Trump is more benign and as such more dangerous. He is a pathetic, emotionally stunted narcissist looking for love in all the wrong places, but he is dangerous because of the mob that is giving him that love--and because of the agenda of the power elite who will give him their love once his nomination is inevitable. Trump himself has no agenda except to be loved and respected, so in the long run the powerful people whose love he craves will set his agenda. At this point because of his unfavorables he's still a long shot to win in the general, but things change--unforeseen things happen. Mobs, demagogues, rich powerful elites who think they can control the demagogue and the mob? We've seen this movie before too frequently.
Democrats who justify their support for HRC as using their heads rather than their hearts are deluding themselves. She is a weaker candidate than Sanders in confronting the menace that Trump represents. These Democrats are mistaken to think that what makes them feel comfortable is what the country wants. That is very dubious. HRC is a yuppie careerist with no real moral compass, and as such a bland candidate with little to zero charisma. She will be a dim bulb when set next to Trump's flaring neon. So while it's important now that she win, there's a very good chance that she won't. Sanders represents something clear and strong. He's someone you can rally around. HRC is not that. She's not a terrible person or candidate, but she's not a particularly good or interesting one. She's just a formulaic, platitudinous, run-of-the mill politician who will play the Beltway game with little understanding or insight about the world outside the Beltway bubble. Anybody who thinks that's what most Americans want is delusional.
I don't think she really understands what is fueling either Trump's or Sanders's popularity, and I doubt she really takes it very seriously. No constituency, except women of a certain age and class, feel any strong sense of identity with her. Once Trump gets the nomination he will tone down the demagoguery and pivot to present himself as a no b.s. pragmatic problem solver. His let's-make-America-great-again nationalism is a cultural identity strategy that could resonate powerfully with many Americans in the mushy middle. These are people who feel powerless in their own lives and long to feel empowered again, and any demagogue worth his salt knows how to use that. Trump's demagoguery will be particularly powerful if things heat up on the terrorist front.