“I predict to you your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded, autocracy or democracy, because that is what is at stake.” --Joe Biden
If this seems hyperbolic, then you really haven't a clue about the significance of the moment. It's understandable--we all tend to not understand the moment when we're living through it. We all tend to think that what's happening today is no different from what happened yesterday. We all tend to have experiences and miss their meanings. But I am encouraged to see that Joe Biden does seem to understand the moment and that he will be willing to do what's called for to save the country from the forces that seek to subvert what is best in it. I had my doubts about him when he was a candidate, but it's clear there is no other person better suited to deal with the question about whether the American democracy will survive.
And it's for this reason that he understands that the filibuster must go. To hold on to it is to understand today as no different from yesterday; it's a failure to read the moment. I don't know if that's Joe Manchin's problem or whether he just loves being in the limelight for all the wrong reasons, but I hope the voting rights bill will force him to cave on this sooner or later.
But while the voting rights act might be the immediate cause for getting rid of the filibuster, we need to get rid of it because we need a system that is more flexible and accountable. Flexible because gridlock is no longer an option. Problems need to get solved, and the filibuster obstructs solutions for trivial reasons. Accountable because right now the system is tied up by a minority that doesn't get the blame when it prevents the majority from getting done what it was elected to do.
As in the 1930s, we need to have a flexible, more experimental approach to solving problems. We need a simpler, more transparent system that allows experts to propose solutions that get an up or down vote. If it doesn't work, then let those who voted for the bad solution be held accountable and let someone else come in to fix it.
Progressives are right on the substance of almost every real political issue that we're facing today from climate change to reasonable gun control to Covid precautions to income inequality. I think there's a role for thoughtful conservative policymakers to join the debate and critique progressive policy proposals, but conservatives have otherwise no constructive role to play, and the Republicans have become a policy-averse party of cultural grievance trolls and have as such de-legitimated themselves as a governing party. Its role in obstructing policy must be severely limited until it restores itself as being legitimately engaged in real political issues rather than in the nonsense they get their base all riled up about. The quickest way to do that is to remove the filibuster as the purely obstructive tool it has become.
People who argue that the Democrats will rue the day when the Republicans take power in '22 or '24 are wrong because if the Republicans win, it won't matter whether the filibuster is in place or not. It will be too late to save the country if its electorate is so cluelessly ignorant that it could restore to power a party that has so egregiously and persistently disgraced itself. If restored, the Republicans will consolidate power in ways that will dwarf in significance whatever role the filibuster plays now. I think that's when it's likely that secessionist scenarios start to play out.
The Democrats have this one chance now to save the country from GOP insanity and its breaking apart, and if they don't take it, they will almost certainly lose in the next two cycles. This is not a time to play defense, but to push as hard as possible starting with preserving voting rights and then moving on to infrastructure to solve real problems while they have the chance. If they succeed, they still might lose, but if they fail, they will certainly lose.